Assessment of Socio-Economic and Environmental Potential in Natural Vulnerable Areas of the Southern Aral Sea Region (Based on the Example of the Takhtakupyr District of the Republic of Karakalpakstan)

Abstract

This study aims to comprehensively assess the environmental and socio-economic situation in Takhtakupyr District of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, determine the influence of environmental factors on the region's economy, and identify priority directions for the district's development (“growth points”). The study relies on a mixed-methods design combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected from 12 representatives of government administration bodies (average work experience — 14.5 years) using two types of structured questionnaires (Type A — ecological-economic; Type B — demographic-economic) based on Likert scales of 1–5 and 1–10 points, and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results: experts rated the impact of environmental factors (drought, water scarcity) over the past three years at 4.4 out of 5 points, and the expected risk over the next five years at 4.7 out of 5 points. Agriculture and animal husbandry were identified as the most affected sector (4.9/5). Under conditions of water scarcity, camel breeding (9.2/10) and sheep breeding (8.7/10) were identified as the most promising sectors, while water-saving technologies (9.5/10) and alternative energy (8.8/10) were identified as the highest-priority innovations. 91.7% of experts supported an optimistic (sustainable) development scenario.

Practical significance: the results serve as a practical basis for local and regional administrative bodies in identifying livestock farming, renewable energy, and ecotourism as priority “growth points,” as well as in designing short-, medium-, and long-term development programs.

Scientific novelty: the study empirically tests François Perroux’s “growth poles” theory at the district level in a territory affected by the ecological crisis of the Aral Sea basin, using an expert-assessment methodology — a direction that is relatively understudied in this regional context.